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DarthMonk
DarthMonk
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 3238
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| Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 1:39 pm Post subject: Chances of Making Playoffs |
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Latest analysis gives us a 35.2% chance up from 14.2% after the win over the Ginas on Monday Night.
The guys ahead of us outside the NFC East are:
CHI 95%
PAC 90.3%
SEA 60.5%
CHI or PAC will win the North so we have to pass one of them or SEA or win the East.
BUC 20.8%
COW 20.6%
are right behind us. Everyone else is a true long shot.
Our chance of being the #4 seed is 24%.
Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html
DarthMonk |
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Deadskins
JSPB22
Joined: 02 Jul 2004
Posts: 14754
Location: Location, LOCATION!
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| Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 2:25 pm Post subject: Re: Chances of Making Playoffs |
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| DarthMonk wrote: | | Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out. |
100% |
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DarthMonk
DarthMonk
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 3238
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| Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 8:48 pm Post subject: Re: Chances of Making Playoffs |
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| Deadskins wrote: | | DarthMonk wrote: | | Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out. |
100% |
We could win out and miss ... as I'm sure you know. However, I'd say it is probably over 75% if we do win out.
Our best chance is to win the division ... I think.
I wish the Steelers had beaten the Ravens 3 weeks ago and lost last week. Don't like catching them coming off a loss. |
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Deadskins
JSPB22
Joined: 02 Jul 2004
Posts: 14754
Location: Location, LOCATION!
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| Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 10:02 am Post subject: Re: Chances of Making Playoffs |
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| DarthMonk wrote: | | Deadskins wrote: | | DarthMonk wrote: | | Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out. |
100% |
We could win out and miss |
Show me the scenario. |
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SkinsJock
08 Champ
Joined: 24 Feb 2004
Posts: 11532
Location: New England
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| Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 10:08 am Post subject: Re: Chances of Making Playoffs |
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| Deadskins wrote: | | DarthMonk wrote: | | Deadskins wrote: | | DarthMonk wrote: | | Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out. |
100% |
We could win out and miss |
Show me the scenario. |
 THAT would be interesting ... |
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DarthMonk
DarthMonk
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 3238
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| Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:17 am Post subject: Re: Chances of Making Playoffs |
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| Deadskins wrote: | | DarthMonk wrote: | | Deadskins wrote: | | DarthMonk wrote: | | Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out. |
100% |
We could win out and miss |
Show me the scenario. |
Really? Okay.
Giants win out (11-5) and win East.
Seahawks win out (11-5) and get a wild card behind 49ers (11-4-1).
Bears and Pack win out except their rematch so one wins division (12-4) and the other gets the other wild card (11-5).
I like our chances if we win out. We do not control our own destiny but might after this week. |
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SkinsJock
08 Champ
Joined: 24 Feb 2004
Posts: 11532
Location: New England
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| Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:13 pm Post subject: |
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^^ fair enough - IF we do win out though I like the chances of at least one of those others not being able to make the playoffs
one of them is going to lose 2 |
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cowboykillerzRGiii
CKRGiii
Joined: 29 Jul 2010
Posts: 3165
Location: 505 New Mexico repn
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| Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:53 pm Post subject: |
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| If the gnats lose a game and we win out we own the tie breaker with better division record since the fecals beat them, they split with us and dullass. Might make week 17 vs the pukes the biggest game of the year! Glad its at home |
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DarthMonk
DarthMonk
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 3238
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| Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:35 pm Post subject: |
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| cowboykillerzRGiii wrote: | | If the gnats lose a game and we win out we own the tie breaker with better division record since the fecals beat them, they split with us and dullass. Might make week 17 vs the pukes the biggest game of the year! Glad its at home |
Damn right ... and if so, I'm going! |
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Countertrey
the 'mudge
Joined: 09 Jan 2004
Posts: 12782
Location: Curmudgeon Corner, Maine
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| Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:54 pm Post subject: Re: Chances of Making Playoffs |
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| Deadskins wrote: | | DarthMonk wrote: | | Deadskins wrote: | | DarthMonk wrote: | | Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out. |
100% |
We could win out and miss |
Show me the scenario. |
 seriously?
Math. It's not just for nerds.  |
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DarthMonk
DarthMonk
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 3238
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| Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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BTW - Indy's chances are 82.8%. The last AFC spot is likely down to Cincy (56.5%) and Pitt (55%).
Other "interesting" facts about us:
Out of roughly 9.9 million possibilities ...
... around 3.4 million of them get us in.
... around 2.2 million of them have us getting in by finishing 3-1.
... around 0.9 million of them have us getting in by finishing 4-0. The idea here is not that it's harder to get in IF we go 4-0 but that 4-0 is simply less likely than 3-1.
Our chances fall off a cliff with 2 more losses.
We could easily be favored in every game.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html |
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Deadskins
JSPB22
Joined: 02 Jul 2004
Posts: 14754
Location: Location, LOCATION!
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| Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 8:08 am Post subject: |
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| If we beat Bmore, we will win out. |
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DarthMonk
DarthMonk
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 3238
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| Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Deadskins wrote: | | If we beat Bmore, we will win out. |
I feel the same way - linchpin game.
Wonder what would have happened if refs had not given Seattle the Packer game (with butterfly effect). |
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DarthMonk
DarthMonk
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 3238
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:07 pm Post subject: |
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| We are up to 37% now. Go Atlanta! |
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DarthMonk
DarthMonk
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 3238
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:47 pm Post subject: |
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We are suddenly at 66.5%.
We are 53% to be the 4 seed.
We are 3% to be the 3 seed.
We cannot get a bye.
We must beat the Cowboys to win the East.
The most likely scenario is Washington hosting Seattle.
They've knocked us out twice recently ... at their place. Payback would be very nice.
There is an outside chance we could host an NFC title game. 
DarthMonk |
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